Thursday, May 14, 2009

Fallacy of Logic

It seems in politics fallacies of logic are common. Today Senator Pelosi reach deep into the fallacy bag of tricks and used Proof by verbosity, sometimes colloquially referred to as argumentum verbosium - a rhetorical technique that tries to persuade by overwhelming those considering an argument with such a volume of material that the argument sounds plausible, superficially appears to be well-researched, and it is so laborious to untangle and check supporting facts that the argument might be allowed to slide by unchallenged. Chris Matthews favorite when it comes to the President is Style over substance fallacy: occurs when one emphasizes the way in which the argument is presented, while marginalizing (or outright ignoring) the content of the argument. Several other commonly use fallacies of logic are appeal to the masses (everyone else is doing it) and appeal to higher authority (The Pope does it so it must be good.)

When it comes to President Obama appeal to higher authority is not an option; unless it might be to God. Saying other world leaders are doing something might be a case of appeal to higher authority or appeal to the masses. President Obama's use of logic is depends on the subject. When it comes to energy, food, climate he uses Naturalistic fallacy: a fallacy that claims that if something is natural, then it is "good" or "right". Several others use by the President and the administration are:
  • Appeal to motive: where a premise is dismissed, by calling into question the motives of its proposer
  • Appeal to novelty: where a proposal is claimed to be superior or better solely because it is new or modern
  • Appeal to poverty (argumentum ad lazarum): thinking a conclusion is correct because the speaker is financially poor or incorrect because the speaker is financially wealthy
  • Appeal to wealth (argumentum ad crumenam): concluding that a statement is correct because the speaker is rich or that a statement is incorrect because the speaker is poor
When there is no logic for an action one can only resort to defense. The common defense mechanism for both the President and the administration is projection. Claiming the problems currently haunting the country were inherited, each member of the current administration in fact helped create the problems facing society today. President Obama was a senator and very aware of the problems of today, he voted or did not vote on many issues, he was one of the 50 most senior representatives of the entire population of the United States as are the list of characters (in one way or another)who surround the President today. Can you really claim George did it all? Your administration have attributed to President Bush all of the problems accumulated over the last several years without admitting any complicity.

Monday, May 11, 2009

Abortion Drives Politics

Politicians have a propensity to use statistics to pit those who have something against those who do not by measuring our differences, pointing them out in the form of legislation designed to narrow the differences and gain votes. When is comes to abortion the government is silent on statistics; since roe vs wade there have been over 40,000,000 abortions, let us do a little statistical extrapolation and say the decision goes the other way.

Today of the total 10% of those were eliminated by mortality, 10% were unproductive due to physical or mental morbidity, and 10% fell off the end of the earth, leaving 28,000,000 people left to grow the population of the US. Those people would have been born in the US, educated in the US, made scientific discoveries we will never know, been the next great world leader, the list goes on. Now economically those people would be paying taxes into the social security system, corporate taxes, personal taxes, estate taxes. So how do we fill the hole?

Allow an equal number of people to cross our boarders over the same number of years, most not in the systems, working for cash, sending a good part of it home, operating small businesses out of homes for cash in the cash economy. The over crowding in California prison system is around 30%, the percentage of foreigners in prison system 30%. The overcrowding in schools, hospitals, the burden of federal mandated programs all statistical equate with the number of foreigners in the respective region.

The democrats want the foreigners made citizens for the votes, both the Democrats and the republican want them to save social security and to keep wages down. We import labor by exporting our manufacturing as GM seeks government assistance, the plan is to move more manufacturing jobs overseas where production cost are less. I hear no outcry from either party on this issue. Between those allowed into the states via illegal entry, those entering the country under work visas who are highly skilled who are willing to work for less, and those jobs exported over seas there is little motivation to increase wages for middle class Americans.

Saturday, May 9, 2009

Who will buy my tuppins?

Comment by Robin on Newsweek article

Now, The Hard Part

by Howard Fineman

Dear Howard,

President O reached as far left as he could, Second point - he met with Republican leaders and corporate executives. When did this take place, was it in proportion to the time spent with democrats? Are you rewriting history or do you know something I do not? Are these the premise for the article? As to approval ratings: the item left out is often as important as the item mentioned. President O's disapproval rating is at 50% on handling the economy.

Meteoric rises are most often followed by at least a reversion to the mean, sometimes hard, like the crash in stocks or real estate. Stats are Stats. I believe the top has been rung in President O's ratings and there is no place to go but down and sideways. The problems stated in the article are true, but his real economic rating in the world will be tracked by the 10 year treasury note rate. A one percent rise in the rate will change the price over 10%, who will buy my tuppins?

Friday, May 1, 2009

Class Warfare

My first post outlined why I believe wages will rise. Little did I know at the time the agency of the change would not be supply and demand, but the redistribution of wealth through the executive branch. In the end the current policies ensure that the economic cycle will take much longer than it might have normally to reach the next peak in the earnings cycle.

The carbon tax is most insidious, permeating every thing we do which expends energy, it will fall on the poor as a percentage of income, estimates as high 6.9% for low wage earners and 1.9% for high. 135 dollars per month on a wage of $2000.00 per month, two weeks wages per year. Uhm! Looks to me like another decrease in purchasing power needed to be overcome by a future wage increase.

The increase in the debt, taxes, and maybe worse of all an increase in fees charged by local governments. In some case minor traffic tickets are over $500.00 in California, fees for a water meter over $10,000, fee for applying for a permit - through the roof, state a local bond issuance. It will come to an end. The increase in debt is a parabolic growth rate and will crash. Come to an abrupt halt, when others are tired of holding deflating dollars and stop buying our debt and we are tired of the every increasing cost of the government burden. It can't happen! It has over and over through out history.

Rome was built and rebuilt. The coin of the realm begins as pure gold, the tax collectors trim off a little piece, now the price of a loaf of bread is one whole coin or two cut coins. Cut coins made illegal, so they were shaved, again made illegal, and ridges were added to the coins. The Senate gets in on the act buy adding alloys to the gold they can make it go farther next time taxes are collect and it will be to hard to cut, shave, or melt. At the same time the workers figure out they can vote, they vote benefits to themselves and the decline continues. Rome took a thousand years to build, due to the velocity of money we could in fact replicate the whole cycle in 2 or 3 hundred.

Bottom line inflation will come and the working people need a raise. It would have been far more expedient to mandate a $5 dollar an hour wage increase for every worker in America implemented $1 per year for 5 years. Might have cost less and would have been far more beneficial in liquefying Americans and therefore big business.

Aristotle said governing should be left to the middle class, if this is true it is time to stand up and be counted.

Robin Hood